Has Sunak’s Farage gamble just paid off?

Rishi Sunak’s election gamble has hit a little turbulence less than 24 hours in. Several members of the cabinet voiced concern over the move to call a summer election, while many Tory MPs are seeing red. Then there was the rain that poured as Sunak tried to address the nation – with loud background music playing out from the street. But at least one rather significant part of the Tory strategy appears to be paying off: Reform.

One of the arguments those close to Sunak made for opting for July rather than waiting for an autumn election was that it could stave off a Nigel Farage comeback. The idea being that by calling an election now, the Reform party could struggle to gain further momentum and Farage would be bounced into making a decision on a possible return rather than spending weeks dropping hints. One of the big concerns in Conservative Campaign Headquarters has long been that Farage would come back, take over as Reform party leader and then Reform would overtake the Conservatives in the opinion polls.

So, while Sunak is not yet out of the woods, there will be relief among his team today. Ahead of a Reform party election event, Farage has put out a statement saying he will ‘help in the campaign’ but will not go any further when it comes to a leadership role or standing for election himself:

‘Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance. A strong America as a close ally is vital for our peace and security. I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way that I can.’

Farage is focusing on opportunities in the US election rather than prioritising the one back here. The Reform threat could still cause a problem for various Tory candidates come 4 July – but the sense in Conservative Campaign Headquarters will be that they have managed to avoid something like their worst-case scenario.