Liz Kendall’s chances of winning the Labour leadership contest appear to be slipping away. On several measures, she has fallen into fourth place. Kendall has just 12 nominations from constituency Labour parties, compared to 58 for Yvette Cooper, 67 for Andy Burnham and 70 for Jeremy Corbyn. Leaked internal Labour party polling also put her in last place. The bookies concur: Ladbrokes currently have 10/1 odds on Kendall as the next Labour leader, compared to evens for Burnham, 9/4 for Cooper and 4/1 for Corbyn.
Part of the problem might be Kendall’s strategy of throwing bucket after bucket of cold water over the Labour party. Take her speech this morning on devolution, for example. Quoting Abraham Lincoln on the need for ‘government of the people, for the people, by the people,’ Kendall outlined her concerns about the Tories’ devolution plans and her alternative:
‘So whilst the Tories leave those are weak on their own, help those who are already strong, and hoard power with a narrow elite – Labour will put power into people’s hands so they can help themselves, and one another too.
While again reminding Labour of where it has gone wrong and where the blame lies:
‘We let this happen. People didn’t trust us on the economy or with their taxes – which is the basic test for any party that wants to govern. And we didn’t offer a positive alternative of a better life that everyone could feel part of. But there’s another, deeper cause of our defeat. We didn’t trust the people of this country.’
There is the possibility that the Labour party no longer wants to hear this take on its mistakes and Kendall’s proposed solutions to them. If this is true, we may reach a point where the party (and other candidates) will no longer put up with Kendall’s cold water. Judging by how the other candidates ganged up on her during yesterday’s TV debate, that point might be nearer than some think. And during this weekend’s hustings in Brighton, Kendall was booed by the activists while Jeremy Corbyn was continually cheered. This may not be representative of the whole party but it’s a trend from several hustings.
Linked in to this, another factor might be the makeup of the new members joining the party. Labour has signed up 60,000-odd new members since the general election and there is much debate about which way these folks are inclined to vote. Given the rapid rise in support for Corbyn, there is speculation that many of these new members are of the more left-wing variety and signed up because Miliband wasn’t radical enough. If this is true, the Labour party’s electorate may be moving away from a place that Kendall is attempting to appeal too.
It’s a different situation to where Team Kendall was hoping to be. Back in May, Isabel reported on the membership game Kendall’s campaign hoped to play — mimicking websites such as JustGiving and Kickstarter to recruit ‘thousands’ of new supporters. One source said then, ‘we will get hundreds of thousands of new supporters. Social media has changed how we communicate in a way we can’t grasp and it has blown open this leadership contest too.’ If her Facebook Q&A was any indication, Kendall’s reputation social media is not going to win her the contest.
Although Team Kendall declined to comment on campaigning tactics, insiders are keen to point out that the contest is far from over and they still believe she has a real chance of winning. As well as Alistair Darling’s backing in the Observer yesterday, I understand there are more endorsements lined up for the coming days and weeks that her campaign are ‘very happy about’.
The Kendall campaign also argue that her media appearances are cutting through — she has had notable hits with ‘country before party’ and telling the Mail on Sunday to ‘f**k off’. She has been backed by four retired trade union leaders, three former chief whips, as well as four of the biggest constituency Labour parties and nine leaders of London Labour councils. Plus, Kendall campaign sources claim their canvassing operation is ahead of the other campaigns.
All this may be true, but it’s hard to deny that the buzz and momentum around Liz Kendall has subsided as the leadership contest has dragged on. The bookies and pollsters may yet be proved wrong and thousands of ‘shy Kendallites’ might emerge to vote for her. But at this stage, the Labour leadership is increasingly looking to be a direct fight between Burnham and Cooper, with Kendall left shouting from the sidelines – and Corbyn shouting from slightly closer to the fray.
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