Has Labour done enough?

Is Labour on course to be the largest party at the next election but miss out on a majority? Despite recent opinion polls suggesting Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a huge majority, this is the projection this evening from the respected Sky election analyst Michael Thrasher. Using the latest figures from the local elections, Sky News has projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament – but to fall short of a Commons majority by 32 seats. The findings come as BBC News puts its projected national share as Labour on 34 per cent – nine points up on the Tories, but one point down on its estimated share in the last two sets of elections.

So, does this suggest Labour has had a more disappointing night than first thought? The Thrasher model assumed that the changes seen in vote share occur uniformly across each of the newly drawn parliamentary constituencies in place for the next general election.