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[/audioplayer]Ask anyone in Westminster about the obstacles to a Tory victory in next year’s election and you’ll hear a well-rehearsed answer. The constituency boundaries are so ancient that Labour can win on a far lower share of vote; Ukip is eating into the Tories’ base while the coalition has united the left behind Labour; being beaten by Ukip in the European elections will send Tory MPs into a regicidal frenzy. By contrast, Labour appears to be holding itself together; its problems are hidden well below the waterline.
But that’s changing. The Budget has brought the political tide out, revealing some of the rocks on which Ed Miliband’s hopes of office could be dashed.
The first of these is the increasingly tense debate inside the Labour party about the nature of the party’s manifesto.
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