Has Britain avoided falling into recession?

Earlier in the week, the stock market responded very positively to news that inflation had come out a little lower than expected (even though, at 7.9 per cent, it is still far ahead of where most forecasters, from the vantage point of the beginning of 2023, would have expected it to be by now). Markets have been left largely unmoved, however, by two pieces of positive news this morning: lower than expected public borrowing in June, and higher retail sales, also in June. 

The volume of sales was up 0.7 per cent in June compared with May. While that was, in part, due to the extra bank holiday in May, which suppressed sales in that month, sale volumes were also up quarter on quarter, by 0.4 per cent. Sales were, however, down 1.0 per cent on June 2022. 

The retail sales figures are consistent with other piece of data, notably GDP itself, which suggest that the much-anticipated recession of 2023 has still not arrived, and may never do. The