Israeli, international and Hamas officials are currently awaiting the decision of Yahya Sinwar, the terror group’s military leader on a proposed ceasefire deal. Egypt has put forward a phased release of Israeli hostages and a temporary end to the fighting in Gaza. Sinwar is looking at the deal. As the talking and the diplomatic manoeuvring continues, two IDF combat divisions, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armoured, are making their final preparations for entry into Rafah. Failure to reach agreement on Egypt’s proposal is likely to set an IDF operation into motion.
Egypt’s proposition would commit Israel to a long and open-ended ceasefire. Over time, Israeli hostages would be swapped for Palestinian prisoners, and the number of Israeli armed forces in Gaza would be reduced. Israeli media has reported that the current stumbling block is whether the ceasefire should be temporary or permanent. The Gazan Hamas leadership wants a permanent conclusion of hostilities, but look a little deeper and it is easy to see why maintaining the current situation might well be preferable to them.
A battle in Rafah would not necessarily represent Sinwar’s last roll of the dice
From their point of view, refusing a deal does not make imminent strategic defeat at the hands of Israel inevitable.
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