Growing the NHS workforce isn’t enough to fix its problems

Earlier this summer, NHS England published its long-term workforce plan. It has the backing of all major political parties and outside of health policy circles it did not attract much attention at first. But now, as its full implications (especially in fiscal terms) are becoming obvious, that is changing. A new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has modelled what this plan, if fully implemented, would entail.

The NHS currently employs 1.5 million people, or about 6 per cent of the total workforce and a little under 40 per cent of the public sector. Under the health service’s workforce plan, that number will rise to 2.3 million by 2036, accounting for around 9 per cent of the total workforce, and 49 per cent of the public sector workforce. In other words, the NHS will employ one in eleven workers in the country, and half of all public sector workers.

In order to entice so many more people to work for the NHS, real wages in the health sector will have to grow at least at the same rate as in the wider economy.