With half the votes counted, the No side in the Greek referendum is leading by 61% to 39%. With this lead for No at this stage in the count, it seems certain that it has won.
The question now is how the Eurozone will react to this result. Before the vote, the Eurozone powers made clear that they wanted Greece to vote Yes. The Germans, French and Italians all repeatedly warned the Greeks that this was effectively a vote on whether to stay in the Euro or Not. Jean-Claude Juncker even hinted that this was a referendum on whether Greece should stay in the EU or not. So, what will they do now that the Greek electorate has so spectacularly rejected their advice?
Well, the person everyone will be watching now is Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank. If the ECB withdrew its emergency lending assistance to the Greeks banks, that would crater the Greek financial system. Athens would be left with little choice but to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma so that it could print money. But Draghi has desperately tried to keep the ECB out of the politics of the Eurozone crisis and will be reluctant to take this step. But he may well come under intense pressure from Berlin and other Northern European capitals to do just this.
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