Politics Home’s Insider panel’s benchmarks for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election give us a pretty good idea of how the pundit class would treat various results tonight. If the Tory majority is over 4,000, the panel thinks, that Labour would go into a tailspin and it would be confirmed that the Tories were on their way back to Downing Street. So, if the Tories do win tonight—watch the majority. Brown can probably weather a fairly narrow loss, but a thumping defeat would take us into a whole new political stage.
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