They said South Carolina would be Mitt Romney’s big test. Tonight, he failed it. The networks have called the primary for Newt Gingrich, and CNN’s exit poll shows him beating Romney 38-29. It’s an astounding turnaround, considering that Romney led by around 10 points just a few days ago.
The Romney campaign is already trying to claim it’s not too disappointed by the result – that a few weeks ago they would have been happy with third place, that it’s Florida that really matters. But the truth is, he’s suffered a big upset. After it looked like he’d won Iowa and he took a solid if unsurprising win in New Hampshire, there was speculation he might sweep every state. Now, with Rick Santorum declared the victor in Iowa and Gingrich beating him in South Carolina, Romney’s tally stands at just one out of three.
The next primary will be Florida in ten days time. The latest polling there has Romney up by around 20 points, but they were all conducting before Gingrich caught fire in the last few days. If he’s surged there as he has in South Carolina, he could’ve pulled level with Romney already. And if Santorum drops out after tonight’s results, Gingrich could well gain a large share of his supporters too. Santorum’s campaign staff says their candidate will carry on, claiming that Gingrich could implode (yet again) and that Romney is vulnerable. But Santorum doesn’t have the money to compete in a big state like Florida, so that talk could turn out to be nothing more than bluster.
So all eyes will now turn to the Sunshine State. If Romney wins there, he may be able to shrug off tonight as a blip. If Gingrich wins, Romney will have gone from being odds on to sweep all four
January states to winning just one of them – and this race could have a long way to go.
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