James Forsyth James Forsyth

Get ready for an election where everyone loses (except maybe the Lib Dems)

A surprisingly chipper party conference, and what comes after it

British Prime Minister David Cameron (L) and his wife Samantha are pictured after making his keynote speech on the final day of the annual Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, central England, on October 1, 2014. Talk of treason cast a shadow over Britain's Conservative party conference this week, where gossip raged over who might be next to defect to the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP). AFP PHOTO / OLI SCARFF (Photo credit should read OLI SCARFF/AFP/Getty Images) 
issue 04 October 2014

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[/audioplayer]Two things have been puzzling Tory high-ups in Birmingham this week: does Nigel Farage have another defector in his back pocket, and why is the Tory party in such a good mood? Many expected that a second MP defecting to Ukip would have plunged the party into the slough of despond.

One influential Tory, though, has an explanation for what’s going on. ‘The mood here is so upbeat because people think we’ve got Labour beat.’ He is, however, quick to add, ‘It is Ukip that is the problem.’

This is the paradox of British politics at the moment: it is easier to explain why either main party shouldn’t win the election than to advance an argument as to why they will. With just eight months to go, Labour trails on the economy and leadership by margins that would normally be considered terminal.

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