Germany’s results are a relief for Starmer – for now

Over beer, pretzels and sausages, guests gathered last night at the German ambassador’s house in Belgravia to watch the federal election results come in. The fact that the mood scarcely changed after the 5 p.m exit poll hinted at the prevailing sense of relief. Across London, similar sentiments were likely shared in Downing Street. The Christian Democrats, came top on 28.6 per cent, a result at the lower end of expectations. But barring any unforeseen circumstances, it means the CDU will provide the next Chancellor in Friedrich Merz. 

He will now work to build a stable coalition in the 630-strong Bundestag, potentially with Olaf Scholz’s SPD, who came third on 16.4 per cent. The two parties’ shared goal is shutting out the AfD, who finished on 20.8 per cent. Together, the two parties only have 327 seats – some way short of the two thirds majority needed to amend the constitution or amend the debt brake.