Germany’s flood disaster could trigger a political upheaval

There is an interesting history to the politics of floods in Germany – and a possibility that history might be repeating itself. The official death toll in Germany has risen to 93 this morning, but 1300 people are still reported missing in the region of Ahrweiler, in western Germany. This is without a doubt the most extreme natural disaster that has hit Germany in living memory.

We should not at this point draw any hasty conclusions about the political impact. It is possible that it will benefit the Greens because climate change is back on the political agenda. Historically, floods have benefited incumbent governments.

In 1962, a giant storm over the North Sea lead to the flooding of Hamburg after dykes broke. The population received no warning because phone lines had been cut, and because the authorities underestimated the likelihood of a North Sea storm affecting Hamburg, which is 60 miles inland.

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The flood triggered the political rise of Helmut Schmidt, who at the time was Hamburg’s senator for interior and security affairs.