Germany is running out of time to reform

Germany’s government after the election on 23 February will likely be led by pro-business Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz. His coalition partner, probably the Social Democrats of failed Chancellor Olaf Scholz, or else the Greens of economy minister Robert Habeck, will torpedo any serious economic reforms. Equally worrying: Merz’s own reform blueprint is far too timid.

A new wild card in the vote – up to now dominated by the economy – is spiralling migrant violence and failures of German authorities to lock up people known to pose acute threats. A horrifying knife attack on a nursery school group in a park in Aschaffenburg, in Bavaria, on Wednesday, allegedly by an Afghan man, killed a two-year old boy and a 41-year-old man who tried to protect the children. This follows the attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, reportedly by a Saudi man using an SUV, that killed six and injured hundreds on 20 December.

Reactions to the latest killings by Merz and other candidates have been harsh, but it’s too early to tell if this will upend campaigning and lead to a tougher German position challenging EU laws on migration.