Boris Johnson failed to break the Brexit negotiations deadlock over dinner with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen last night. But while the continuation of talks suggest that neither side favours no deal, something needs to give if a deal is to be reached. It’s here that Germany holds the key.
France appears to be the major obstacle to a deal, particularly over fisheries, but also over the level-playing field. France and the UK have similar-sized and structured economies; both are major military powers and maritime nations. Paris is more likely than Frankfurt to threaten London’s crown.
But Germany – the ever-pragmatic manufacturing titan of the EU – will be the final arbiter of any decision. It is Germany which has frustrated French attempts at transforming the EU into a coherent geopolitical force. Meanwhile, Berlin has a more complex relationship with Russia than the average western European country, while its relationship with China is more influenced by the need to maintain trade ties.
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