Russia wants to bleed Ukraine dry before its tanks arrive

The decision by Kyiv’s international partners to send Nato-designed main battle tanks to Ukraine is a pivotal moment in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The tanks may be the focus of attention, but they were part of a much larger range of commitments – Ukraine’s partners have now committed to enabling Kyiv to reclaim its territory as quickly as possible. In spite of that, it will take months of hard fighting before Ukraine can make significant gains. 

Russia is currently at the nadir of its capabilities, fielding poorly trained troops with older and more varied equipment, and with shortages of munitions. At the same time Russia has enough forces on the ground to mean that Ukraine can only make progress with a deliberate offensive. Russia can also mobilise and train more personnel. Russia’s defence industry is also increasing production, so that if Ukraine does not retain the initiative, it will become progressively harder to liberate territory.