Some of what David Smith, author of the essential Economic Outlook column in the Sunday Times, says today will be salve to George Osborne:
‘…the government intended to spend £722bn in the 2013-14 fiscal year. In fact, it spent £714bn. Spending has been lower each year than set out in 2010. Current spending was originally intended to be £679bn in 2013-14. In fact, it was £668bn. Unusually for any government, spending has come in comfortably within budget. There has been no slippage.’
Other parts will not:
‘Where there has been slippage is in tax receipts, which have been weaker than expected. A small amount of that was due to deliberate policy choices — not raising fuel duty and increasing the personal income tax allowance to £10,000 more quickly — but most of it was not.
The weakness of the recovery until 2013 — due in part to deficit reduction but mainly weak credit, the squeeze on real wages and the eurozone crisis — is what hit tax receipts.
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