The signs are not good. The much-anticipated Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal is a horribly complicated construct which seems almost designed to fail. The three-phase plan, which is due to start today, will stop the fighting for 42 days. During that time, Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip’s most populated regions and allow much needed aid convoys at the Rafah border to enter the devastated area. In return, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
The two sides will continue talking in the hope of securing the deal’s next two phases, which would free the remaining hostages and make the ceasefire permanent.
The prize for success is the end of a 15-month conflict launched by Hamas, which inflamed the Middle East and left many in the West wondering if we were about to witness world war three. But the plan contains a lot of moving parts and they will all need to work seamlessly if the eventual goal of a more permanent ceasefire is to be achieved.
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