Up until now, the Tory leadership rules have protected Boris Johnson. The requirement that 15 per cent of MPs must send in a letter sets a high bar for a no-confidence ballot, as demonstrated by how long it took the rebels to get the numbers against both Johnson and May. But from now on, the rules work against him.
Johnson will likely win tonight’s vote. But that does not mean he will lead the Tories into the next election
The reason for this is that because the bar is so high for a no-confidence ballot it means that a substantial number of the leader’s own MPs will vote no confidence in them. Once that has happened it cannot be undone. Johnson will be wounded by the result tonight even if he wins. If he gets less than the 63 per cent of the vote that Theresa May got, he will be in a particularly bad way.
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