France’s election has become a race for second place

This year’s French election campaign is a strangely muted affair. The incumbent, president Emmanuel Macron, has still neglected to declare that he is a candidate, even as he directs the entire weight of the French state towards his re-election. The geometry is highly variable. Pollsters admit privately that they’re struggling to measure abstentionism, or how to weigh up the insurgency of Eric Zemmour, since they’re unable to calibrate their data against any previous election performance by him. Macron looks certain to enter the second round and almost certain to win it. The dynamic question is, who will face him?

There’s a dog-that-didn’t-bark quality to the campaign because, despite the obsession of all media and political classes and some militants on the left and the right, most voters seem entirely unmoved. Thus far, even with fewer than 90 days to go until round one and then a run-off two weeks later, the election has not caught the popular imagination.