Four weeks to Iowa, and Newt’s looking strong

It’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, the first big vote of the presidential primaries. It could finish off some candidates who’ve been shuffled to the bottom of the pack, and give us a better idea of the chances of those at the top.
 
Right now, Newt Gingrich looks most likely to be celebrating on January 3rd. As Fraser suggested last weekend, he seems to be gaining most from Herman Cain’s withdrawal, and now leads the field both nationally and in Iowa. An average of the five polls from the past week, and reallocating Cain’s voters to their second choice candidate, reveals an 11-point lead for Gingrich:
 

 
27 days is, of course, plenty of time for Gingrich’s lead to go the same way as Bachmann’s, Perry’s and Cain’s — especially with four TV debates still to come before the caucuses, three of them in Iowa. And even if it does hold up, there’s every chance his ground game will be too weak to win over the town halls.