This week’s events have undoubtedly done the government damage. But I suspect that ultimately its fate will be determined by whether its gamble of raising taxes to put more money into the NHS results in much lower waiting lists — or just grumpy taxpayers.
Reducing the backlog will require more capacity. So, it is worrying that the Department of Health doesn’t know how many extra doctors and nurses it will need to clear the backlog. The government is currently miles off even its pre-pandemic target of 6,000 extra doctors by 2024. Optimistic numbers suggest there might be 300 more than in 2019, but others think things have gone backwards.
If these problems can’t be sorted, clearing the backlog will become even more difficult
Given how long it takes to train a doctor, the only way the target can be met is through easing immigration restrictions, bringing some retired doctors back into the profession and improving the retention of existing staff.
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