For Boris, the Games could be just a warm-up

It is an odd summer in Westminster. The political big beasts have stayed around because of the Olympics. Government ministers have international schmoozing to do; and in any case, like their senior shadows, they would not want to risk being seen scrambling back from abroad in the event of a national emergency. They are not, however, expecting to be able to score many political points while the Games are in progress. Only one office-holder is making full use of them: Boris Johnson.

The Mayor of London has been doing what he does best — directing the emotional energy of a crowd. His performance has reminded me of a conversation I had several years ago with one of his former colleagues who had known him in several guises. The man, who had sat on the Tory benches with Boris, doubted that the party would ever go for him as leader; he would be too much of a risk and not enough of a team player. But, my source said, there is one scenario in which they would swallow their doubts.

He sketched out the circumstances in which the Tory MPs would send Boris through to the final round of a leadership contest. ‘The party will be ten to 15 points behind, facing certain defeat a year or so before an election. At that point, their survival instincts will kick in and they’ll think that Boris might just be the one who’ll save their seats.’

We’ve not reached this moment yet: the election is still more than two years away and Labour’s average lead in the polls is only in single figures. But Tory MPs are becoming increasingly despondent about their party’s chances in 2015; the argument that the party is actually doing reasonably for mid-term — polling only three points behind its 2010 general performance — cuts little ice.