If floating voters had to choose between the Conservative party and the Liberal Democratic party, a clear majority of them would choose the Lib Dems, according to a poll conducted for The Spectator. And almost half of them believe it likely that the Lib Dems will take over from the Tories within five years.
Floating voters make up as much as 30 per cent of the electorate, while core Tory voters make up about 25 per cent, core Labour 30 per cent, and core Lib Dems perhaps 15 per cent. When floating voters decide whether or not to walk down to the polling booth, they ask themselves two questions: does any party offer me something I really want? And, if so, does it have a chance of winning?
It is crucial to put those two questions together, because polls have often suggested that the Lib Dems are closest to offering consumers what they want; the trouble is that, as only the third largest party, they have been seen as unable to deliver. That may be changing.
In our poll of 274 floating voters*, the majority (60 per cent) trust no party to improve their lives, but when forced to choose between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, nearly two-thirds chose the Lib Dems. Furthermore, 44 per cent of them say it is very likely or quite likely that the Lib Dems will overtake the Tories within five years, and only 20 per cent find that ‘very unlikely’. We also assembled a panel of core Tory voters: and only half of these true-blue loyalists think it is ‘very unlikely’ that they could slip to third place.
But Tories can take heart. Not all the news from the floating voters’ panel is bad.
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