Five things we learnt from the IFS Budget briefing

It’s the day after Jeremy Hunt’s first Budget and so far the Chancellor has managed to avoid disaster. Reaction has been muted, with the Daily Mail asking the question on the mind of many Tories: ‘Is it enough to turn the tide?’ The Guardian and Mirror have, predictably, focused on criticism of Hunt’s proposal to abolish the Lifetime Allowance but thus far the Chancellor is yet to see his Budget ‘unravel’ in the manner of George Osborne’s 2012 statement or Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘fiscal event.’

However, this morning’s Budget briefing from the Institute of Fiscal Studies offered some grim analysis. Paul Johnson and his number-crunching team ran through the figures in the Spring Budget in detail. There was some relief at the return of ‘a relatively normal’ Budget, post-pandemic and with the OBR forecasting inflation to drop from 10.7 to 2.9 per cent. There were few surprises in the Budget, with Hunt lacking much headroom against his fiscal targets, though the IFS found plenty to discuss.