So, now we know: it’s Heathrow. After three years, numerous representations, a ton of lobbying and much political handwringing, Sir Howard Davies’s Airports Commission has recommended building a third runway at Heathrow Airport. In his report released today (pdf here), Davies says it would create 70,000 jobs by 2050, bring in £157 billion in economic growth and connect Britain to 40 new destinations. This is no small recommendation and it will have significant political consequences across Westminster. Here are five key groups who will be affected by Davies’ recommendation.
1. Boris Johnson
Along with Zac Goldsmith, Boris has been one of the most ardent campaigners against expanding Heathrow. He has spent his whole mayoralty fighting against it and will undoubtedly use his new sway as the MP for Uxbridge and an attendee at political cabinet to continue arguing against it. This morning, Johnson reiterated that a third runway is ‘undeliverable and isn’t going to happen’ and described the proposal as ‘something you’d see in 1950s China’. In retaliation, Davies claimed Boris has ‘come up with a lot of phrases’ during the airport debate but has yet to offer an alternative ‘plausible proposal’.
There is also the likely possibility that Boris will go down fighting. Crucially for his future career, the government is not expected to vote on Davies’ proposal until the end of the year. This means he can vote against the government on Heathrow at the end of 2015, arguing he is speaking for London, without destroying all of his chances of moving into the Cabinet when he leaves City Hall.
2. The London Mayoral race
If the race for London Mayor is straight fight between Labour’s Tessa Jowell and the Tories Zac Goldsmith, the 2016 election will be a referendum on Heathrow. This can only be a good thing for Goldsmith, who remains the bookies’ favourite to succeed Boris. The MP for Richmond will pick up plenty of anti-Heathrow support in the outer London suburbs, as well as second preference votes from Lib Dem and Green voters concerned about the environmental impact.
But if Labour chooses Sadiq Khan as its candidate, both candidates will be anti-Heathrow and the new occupant of City Hill could find themselves at odds with Westminster. Either way, Heathrow will dominate the 2016 race. It’ll be interesting to see how Goldsmith’s already difficult relationship with the Tory leadership pans out — he’s promised this morning to resign from his seat if Heathrow goes ahead. There’s no word yet if it would impact his decision to run for Mayor.
3. David Cameron
‘No ifs, no buts, there’ll be no third runway at Heathrow,’ is what David Cameron said about expanding Heathrow airport in 2009. If the government decides to back Davies’ recommendation, his critics will crow that he is breaking this promise and that soundbite will be all over the airwaves. But this morning’s Daily Telegraph reports that the Prime Minister won’t back a major expansion at Heathrow because he ‘does not want to break his promise to voters’.
The Heathrow folks are keen to point out that this proposal is very different, with significant new noise and flight time restriction. This offers Cameron a get out, once the details of the report have been examined. Heathrow’s CEO John Holland-Kaye said this morning ‘we have u-turned so the Prime Minister doesn’t have to.’ There is also the possibility that the government will vote against Davies’ straight recommendation of expanding Heathrow, or vote for some kind of fudge.
4. The Labour party
Will Labour back a third runway? Ed Milband was opposed to a third runway and withdrew the party’s support during his tenure as leader. The four leadership candidates have yet to make their current views known — although it’s probably safe to assume that Jeremy Corbyn will be against it. The shadow transport secretary Michael Dugher has told the FT ‘if we find that the main recommendation in the final report meets a number of conditions that we have set, we will take a swift decision to back Sir Howard’s recommendations.’
If the next Labour leader is on side with Dugher, who is a key member of Burnham’s team, and backs Heathrow, it will reopen all those deep wounds created by the infighting a decade ago, which lead to this much delayed commission and report in the first place.
5. The rest of Britain
The Davies Commission set out to deliver a recommendation on airport capacity in London and the South East – but the results will have a significant impact on the rest of the country’s economy too. According to Davies’ report, 60 per cent of the benefits from expanding Heathrow would be felt outside of London. One of the reasons George Osborne and Sajid Javid have been open to expanding Heathrow is for the benefits to the rest of the country, not least Osborne’s beloved Northern Powerhouse.
Even the SNP are quietly pro-Heathrow, realising that it’s their gateway to trading with the rest of the world. While Cameron and the next Labour leader will be worrying about their votes in London, MPs for the rest of Britain have reasons to be cheerful about Davies’ decision.
Comments