James Forsyth James Forsyth

Five reasons why winning in May won’t be that much better than losing

Defeat in May would be dire for either Cameron or Miliband. It would end their political career in ignominious failure. But winning would not be much better: they would be the weakest PM in living memory. Here’s why it won’t be easy for either of them:

Miliband would be a prisoner of his own MPs: The best that both Labour and the Tories can hope for is the narrowest of outright victories. The 21 seat majority that John Major ground out in 1992 is, probably, beyond either of them. Miliband would then find himself having to steer swingeing cuts past a party that is simply not prepared for them.

It is worth remembering that within months of winning in 1997, Blair faced a major rebellion from Labour MPs – 47 voted against and 100 abstained on changes to lone parent benefits.

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