Westminster conversation about Brexit often suffers a time lag. MPs frequently speak with surprise about things that actually happened months ago and which are regarded as old, established facts in Brussels and policy wonk-world. The backstop is the best example: outlined in the December 2017 Joint Report of the UK and EU negotiators, its meaning and necessity still came as a novelty to some MPs – resigning cabinet ministers included – in June; and to others in November. (The 2017 election result is another instance: it took many Tory MPs at least a year to realise it meant there could be no Commons majority for the hardest form of Brexit; some still haven’t worked that out.) With that in mind, here’s a guess about the next set of facts that could soon surprise MPs, and in a way that helps get Theresa May’s deal through the Commons in the end.
Together, these facts tell one story that really hasn’t been told well enough around Westminster: the backstop isn’t a trap the EU is trying to spring, isn’t all bad for Britain and might actually offer some – limited – advantages alongside its costs.
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