The UK economy has so far defied those, like the Bank of England, who confidently predicted a recession. But the threat is not over yet, as the retail sales figures for October show.
Not only were sales volumes down by 0.3 per cent over the month, but the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revised its estimate for sales volumes in September downwards from minus 0.9 per cent to minus 1.1 per cent. Over the three months to October – a better guide as the number is based on more data – sales were also down 1.1 per cent. Over the year to October, sales volumes were down 2.7 per cent (although the amount we spent was up 2.2 per cent, a reflection of inflation).
The biggest influence on the October figures were sales of automotive fuel, which were down 2 per cent in volume. We seem to be driving less – at least in petrol and diesel cars. The
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