Falling net migration: a clear policy success?

The fall of one third in the net immigration statistics announced today is the most significant development since that number rose by 50 per cent in 2004 (unremarked, incidentally, by the BBC at the time). On this occasion the IPPR (and the Migration Observatory) seemed determined to play down the government’s achievement. Certainly there is still a distance to go from today’s 160,000 to the target of tens of thousands but there are another two years in which to reach it.

Sarah Mulley argues that the government are laying a trap for themselves because a reduction in student arrivals will lead to a reduction in departures in a few years time.   That would only be true if the fall was in genuine students.  In fact, the fall was very largely among New Commonwealth students.  There is extensive evidence from the National Audit Office and from a Home office pilot study which indicates that there has been serious abuse of the student route in the Indian sub-continent.