By this time next year Britain will, if the government has its way, have voted on whether or not this country should stay in the European Union. This referendum has the potential to reshape British politics. It will not only determine whether we remain in the EU, but it will also play a huge role in determining who will be the next Prime Minister. It will present David Cameron with the most difficult party-management challenge that he has faced in more than a decade as Tory leader.
Downing Street has given up trying to secure a deal at the European Council later this month. The new target is early in the new year. The major stumbling block to any agreement is the British proposal for a four-year bar on EU migrants receiving either in- or out-of-work benefits here.
Cameron has been told that this is vital if he is to persuade Britain that he is doing something about immigration, one of voters’ biggest concerns about EU membership. However, Eastern European govern-ments — particularly the newly elected Polish one — are determined not to concede this point. With Angela Merkel having burned her political capital with these countries over refugee resettlement, it is hard to see who can — or will — persuade them to accept the British position.
Both campaigns believe that the end of the renegotiation will benefit them. The ‘Out’ side claims that focus groups find voters incredulous when told that Cameron won’t use the renegotiation to challenge the principle of free movement. They believe they will be able to persuade the public that the new deal is pretty much the same as the current one — and it is true that the demands Cameron set out in his recent letter to European Council president Donald Tusk were underwhelming.
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