Everything you wanted to know about Iowa but were afraid to ask

Few things get transatlantic political geeks revved up like the Iowa caucuses. If, as Clinton strategist Paul Begala put it, politics is ‘show business for ugly people’, then Iowa is our Eurovision – bizarre, extreme and irreverent, with a cult following among a small section of the public to the bafflement of everyone else. Even the complex electoral system and the seemingly random whims of an exceptionally politicised electorate seem comparable: a candidate is expected to champion the virtues of ethanol subsidies in this corn-rich state, for instance, with the same certainty and regularity as Cyprus giving Greece douze points.

How good a predictor is Iowa?

The caucuses don’t actually have a great record of predicting the eventual nominee. Of the contested caucuses since 1972, the candidate who won in Iowa would go on to secure the GOP nomination in three out of seven contests (though Mitt Romney lost by just 34 votes in 2012), while this figure stands at a more impressive six of nine occasions for Democrats.