Even the academics don't have a clue who will win this election

Academics gathered in London today to discuss how they predict the outcome of the most unpredictable election in living memory (© everyone), and they gave their current forecasts. They vary quite a bit with the predictions for the number of seats the Tories will get between 233 and 296 and for Labour from 261 seats to 312. Like the Political Studies Association’s survey of several hundred academics, pollsters and journalists which was released last month, when you take the average of the predictions (to exploit the ‘wisdom of crowds’ and hopefully end up with a more accurate forecast), Labour is ahead but there’s barely room for a cigarette paper between them and the Tories. The PSA’s panel had Labour ahead by four seats, today’s academics put Labour seven seats ahead. But no-one at today’s conference forecast an absolute majority for either party. If there’s a consensus, it’s that the Conservatives—or, more likely Labour—will be the largest single party in a hung Parliament.