Even Putin knows he is losing

Vladimir Putin’s latest escalation over Ukraine not only demonstrates that even he doesn’t think he’s winning the war but what happens when a leader knows he has to do ‘something’ but doesn’t quite know what.

Momentum was, after all, no longer on his side. He seems to have hoped that over a hard winter, either Ukraine would lose the will to fight or the West would succumb to ‘Ukraine fatigue’. However, Ukraine’s impressive counter-offensive in the north-east not only confirmed Kyiv’s continued and even growing will and ability to fight but also galvanised Western support.

Meanwhile, the West is not alone in feeling the pain. Putin went to Samarkand for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation hoping for some political, if not practical endorsements for his war on the West. Instead, China, India and Turkey all pressed him to end the war quickly, and he was forced publicly to recognise their qualms.

Putin returned to Moscow, his isolation emphasised by the global gatherings of leaders at the Queen’s funeral (to which he was not invited) and the United Nations General Assembly (to which he wouldn’t dare go).