Erdogan’s latest power move could backfire

00:00 06:30

Owen Matthews has narrated this article for you to listen to.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has never been so weak – nor so strong. At home, he is facing the most potent challenge to his power since an armed coup in 2016, in the form of a serious electoral challenger whom he has just jailed, causing massive protests and unsettling the money markets. Internationally, though, he has never been stronger. Every major power bloc in the world, it seems, needs Turkey’s help, with issues ranging from immigration to peacekeeping and energy supplies.

For Europe, Erdogan remains a major gas supplier and an essential bulwark against immigrants from Syria and Afghanistan. Turkey is a powerful Nato member with a 350,000-strong army and a booming defence industry, which could play a leading role in rearming Europe and participating in a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. For Russia, Erdogan has played a key middleman role in Black Sea shipping negotiations with Kyiv, while Turkey remains a major export route for Russian gas. It has refused to sign up to European sanctions and remains a key trading partner of Moscow’s. Yet Turkey remains an ally and trading partner of Ukraine, with a company owned by Erdogan’s son-in-law supplying the country’s Bayraktar-2 drones.

Most important is Erdogan’s continued strong relations with the US. Turkey remains an essential (though not wholly reliable) ally in Syria and against Iran. Donald Trump is a big admirer of Erdogan and reports suggest he could visit Washington next month. A recent conversation between the two leaders was described as ‘great’ and ‘really transformational’ by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.

Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s only opponent with a real chance of winning the next presidential election, was arrested two days after the Trump call.