Erdogan is unlikely to go quietly

The Turkish election is just hours away, and an opposition victory seems more likely than ever under president Erdogan’s rule. Everywhere from cafés to the civil service, from social media to newspapers, the big question on everyone’s lips is whether Erdogan will concede after 21 years in power. Fears of escalation and violence on the streets are high.

As Turkey’s electoral system is old-fashioned and analogue, irregularities and small-scale fraud are common, especially in rural areas. However, the system leaves little to no room for mass election fraud.

In the 2019 local elections, the opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) won in Istanbul by a small margin of a few thousand votes. Losing the country’s biggest city was symbolically significant, as Erdogan himself once stated, ‘The one who wins Istanbul, wins in Turkey’. Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) contested the legitimacy of the results, calling for a rerun, which the Supreme Election Council complied with.