Encouraging early signs for the coalition

Was the delayed ballot in Thirsk and Malton a referendum on the coalition government?  If so, the result released in the early hours of this morning will greatly reassure David Cameron and Nick Clegg.  The Tory candidate Anne McIntosh won the seat with 52.9 percent of the vote (up from 51.9 percent in 2005), and the Lib Dems came second with 23.3 percent of the vote (up from 18.8 percent).  Labour were pushed way down into third place on 13.5 percent (down from 23.4 percent). So, over three-quarters of the vote for the two coalition parties.

I’d be hesitant to draw any firm conclusions from a one-off election, conducted under unusual circumstances.  But the rise in Lib Dem support is eyecatching, and makes you wonder whether they’re still taking votes from Labour, or whether, as Mike Smithson suggests, they are benefitting more generally from the increased visibility of being in government.