It’s plain to see that the Conservative party has a youth problem. Millennials are turning away from the party in their droves. But what is actually causing this dire Tory performance among young voters? There are eight reasons, any of which on their own would present a problem. Together, their combination is creating a conveyor belt towards oblivion for the party.
Part of the reason why youngsters are not voting Tory can be explained by the higher number of them who come from an ethnic minority. Only two in 100 voters aged 85 or over are black or ethnic minority; this compares to around 20 per cent of those aged 29 or under. Such voters tend not to back the Tories. So part of the reason why the age curve – which shows that old voters opt for the Tories, but younger voters don’t – is simply a consequence of the changing ethnic make-up of Brits.
The Tories have Tony Blair to thank for the second factor behind their current difficult situation. The expansion of higher education under New Labour has dramatically shifted the life outcomes, values, debt levels and world views of different generations in a way which makes them less likely to vote for the Conservatives. Almost the entire difference in propensity to vote by age in the EU referendum is explained by education levels and qualification. A similar split also determines which party such voters are likely to back at the ballot box come election time.
Education vs age percentage in England and Wales
That young people are increasingly being drawn to cities should be another concern for the Tories. Small towns end up gutted of their working age population; those left behind see little reason to be optimistic about the future, making them unlikely to vote for a party that has presided over this downturn.
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