Are Labour really going to make Ed Miliband their next leader? Tea leaves and whatever passes for momentum in this race suggest that this is quite possible. If the younger Miliband – the one who, allegedly, can speak “normal” – does prevail then what hesitant conclusions may be drawn?
1. David Miliband’s support at Westminster may have hurt his chances in the other constituencies. Miliband Major ran – in as much as this strolling leadership contest ever amounted to a race – on experience, authority and the sense that he was the inevitable victor. But as Hillary Clinton can tell you, experience, authority and inevitability don’t count for as much as they once did.
2. Just as Hillary was wounded by her support for the Iraq War (without which Barack Obama might not have won) so David Miliband is hampered by the perception that he was the party establishment’s favourite.
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