The Press Association is reporting that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has Ed Miliband leading his brother 51 49 among Labour members and trade unionist once second preferences have been taken into account. Now given David Miliband’s advantage among MP and MEPs, the other part of Labour’s electoral-college, the elder Miliband should still have enough to get over the line. (The Press Association’s headline—‘Poll points to Ed Miliband victory’—strikes me as a bit off for this reason).
But this poll will give the Ed Miliband camp a massive boost going into the final full week of campaigning. One of the things Ed needed was a sense that he really could win and this poll helps him get that.
One thing worth watching is that as many as 20 percent of Labour members eligible to vote in this election have joined the party since the election. These voters are going to be particularly receptive to Ed Miliband’s oppositionalist message.
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