Downing Street is now the last refuge of the electorally damned

Where does Gordon Brown find solace in these darkest of times? In Downing Street, a rather desperate numbers game is being played. It starts with an assumption that the Labour vote has stabilised at around 28 per cent. This is rounded up to 30 per cent, and is forecast to sneak up to 32 at the turn of the year — because the race tends to narrow as polling day approaches. Then, with the coming of spring, the flimsiness of the Cameron project will finally become clear to the British people. The legendary Brown street-fighting election machine will swing into action. With one last push, and if the weather is good on election day, Labour hits 35 per cent of the vote and a hung parliament is in the bag.

There are several obvious problems with this as an election strategy. The most obvious is that it is not built on polling evidence, policy arguments or the government’s record — but on wishful thinking alone.