I like Douglas Carswell. He thinks for himself and has always, I think, added some welcome colour to parliament. But I don’t understand his defection to UKIP at all.
If nothing else it makes it more likely that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister next May. Which in turn dramatically reduces the likelihood there will be an EU referendum in the next parliament. Which is the the matter with which Carswell is most concerned.
He is leaving the Conservatives because he thinks – correctly – that David Cameron will eventually recommend that Britain remain a member of the European Union. Fine. But it is quixotic to leave a party that can actually deliver what you want and join one that can’t. That is what Carswell has done.
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Doubtless it will cheer the Dave Haters and the Better Off Outers but however principled you think Carswell is there remains the ticklish problem that he’s today made an EU referendum less likely not more probable.
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