Theresa May is a cautious politician. She has risen to the top by avoiding unnecessary risks; no one survives 18 years on the Tory front bench by being a gambler. But few prime ministers have the luxury of choosing their battles, and she would not have chosen the two that may now define her premiership: successfully negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union while saving the United Kingdom. If she achieves both, she will join the pantheon of great prime ministers. If she fails, she’ll be keeping Lord North company in the history books.
Unlike David Cameron, May has been preparing for a new Scottish referendum from the moment she entered Downing Street. Sturgeon made it clear on the day after the EU referendum that she regarded another independence vote as highly likely — her party’s membership has trebled since 2014. It is no coincidence that May’s first words on the steps of No. 10
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