Don’t get too excited about the return of high street shopping

Until the turn of the year it was taken for granted that Britain would descend into recession in the coming months. The Bank of England saw a long downturn lasting into 2024; the IMF thought we would do worse than even Russia. Now, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) thinks we might avoid recession altogether, and today comes more evidence to back that up: retail sales volumes rose by 1.2 per cent in February, month on month. The Office of National Statistics also revised its estimate for retail sales volumes in January, from 0.5 per cent (which itself was received as a pleasant surprise) to 0.9 per cent.