Did retail sales really fall in March because of the wet weather? This is the excuse being trotted out by the ONS and many others this morning. Or is it really more a case of February’s surprise rise in sales being too good to be true, and the economy not being as perky as we have fooled ourselves into believing?
Sales volumes have been recorded by the ONS as plunging 0.9 per cent in March, nearly cancelling out the rise of 1.1 per cent in February (which itself was revised down from 1.2 per cent). Sales volumes are still up a modest 0.6 per cent over the past three months, but in March they were 3.1 per cent lower than they were a month earlier.
It ought not to really be a surprise. Inflation is eating away at consumers’ buying power, and wages are not keeping pace. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is up 10.1
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