Why are people so scared of ‘escalation’? The escalation paradigm is the outstanding relic of the Cold War. There is no situation where it cannot be applied. No foreign policy cause – from arming Ukraine, to antagonising Iran, to engaging diplomatically with Taiwan – can be discussed without fearing ‘escalation’. It sits among the other dud words beloved by foreign policy wonks: deterrence, compellence, persuasion, dissuasion. It is lazy, and leads to unthinking punditry. Worse still, our enemies use the escalation word-trap against us.
On 1 April, an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed seven Iranian officers. Everyone is on the edge of their seats. Will Iran escalate? Will Hezbollah? This is the wrong question, not least because it is what they want us to ask. A better question is: how does Iran stand to gain from the current state of affairs?
Many still wonder whether Iran is preparing to open the gates of hell.
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