Donald Trump’s tariff talk is just bluster

Donald Trump is campaigning hard on protectionism, promising to bring skilled manual jobs back onshore. What will that look like? Huge tariffs on imports, foreign companies unable to ‘steal’ American jobs, a re-industrialisation of the heartlands of the United States. But here’s the catch: a trade war on the scale that Trump is promising is simply not feasible. He is bluffing. 

There is no question that Trump is ramping up protectionist rhetoric. ‘American workers will no longer be worried about losing their jobs to foreign nations,’ he told a rally yesterday. ‘Vote for Trump, and you will see a mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from Germany to right here in Georgia.’ Cars manufactured in Mexico could face tariffs of 100 per cent or more, while companies such as the agricultural machinery maker John Deere could face levies of 200 per cent or more if they shift factories to lower-cost countries.