There are 46 days to go until the US presidential election and the race is still tighter than anyone imagined it would be. Donald Trump is just 1.7 points behind Hillary Clinton nationally and you have to ask yourself: are these polls likely to understate, or overstate Trump’s support? In the swing states, it’s pretty even. In Ohio, Trump is five points ahead of Clinton and enjoys healthy support amongst working class whites, who back him by 26 points over Clinton. As Romney found, this is an unreliable base in an America with such rapidly-changing demographics but Hillary isn’t enthusing the groups she had expected to woo. She is only three points in front of Trump amongst women voters (Obama was 11 points ahead in Ohio in 2012). Ohio has picked the winner in each of the last three elections.
And the other states? In Nevada, Trump beats Hillary by 45 per cent to 40 per cent.
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