No one really expects Michel Barnier to be chosen as the Républicains’s candidate for the French presidency. Success in Brussels does not make it easier to win at home. The most famous example of this rule is Martin Schulz, who returned from a long career in Brussels to become German SPD leader and chancellor candidate in 2017. He was seen as a political curiosity partly because he was unknown. But he couldn’t keep up the momentum after German voters saw him on the domestic stage. Brussels insiders become detached from what’s going on at home. It is much easier to go to Brussels than it is to come back.
But don’t write Barnier off just yet. He remained more connected to French politics than Schulz was to Germany. There are also a couple of factors that play to Barnier’s advantage.
First, the shifting landscape on the right. He is the candidate most highly rated by those conservatives who do not wish to be absorbed by Emmanuel Macron’s camp.
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