Don't panic about how Britain will afford its coronavirus bill

Having a passionate national debate now about specific future tax and spending plans is like having a debate about how to fund the restoration of Notre Dame while it is burning down. It is too early for many reasons, but mainly because we just don’t know yet what the shortfall is. Put the fire out, assess the damage, get estimates for the cost of repairs, and then work out how you will fund it.

Our budget discussion is hampered by the fact we don’t know the depth of the recession, how quickly the economy will bounce back, what the national debt will be at the end of it, nor – very importantly – what the annual budget deficit will be.

Estimates of the post-pandemic national debt range wildly, and annual borrowing was already predicted to grow from 2.1 per cent last year to 2.8 per cent next year at the time of March’s budget, but will clearly now be much greater as a result of higher unemployment and lower tax revenues.